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* Herd Immunity May Not the Goal COVID Vaccination Should Pursue4
http://www.hsvg.org/ Guahan Global Foundation
Guahan Global Foundation P.O. Box 206, Hagatna, GU 96932, USA
(December 12, 2025) 2025 ends with uncertainty on climate action More people are now aware that more natural disasters caused by global warming are seriously affecting human society’s well-being and sustainability. But, the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Brazil last month did not turn past promises into concrete results on the ground as expected.   The conference is commonly known as COP30, which stands for the 30th Conference of the Parties, serving as the formal meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parties and a vital platform for advancing solutions to the climate crisis and reinforcing the collective commitment to a sustainable future. It was billed by many as the “implementation COP,” but eventually COP30 did not significantly move us closer to a safer future.   For example, all countries were expected to submit an updated climate plan, which is known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), showing how they would help keep global warming limited to below 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to keep it to 1.5 degrees, the goal outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Although several major economies, including Brazil, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the European Union submitted stronger climate plans, some of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters have not finalized their plans or have announced targets that fall far short of what science says is needed.   The annual Global Carbon Budget Report was published on November 13 as countries met for COP30 climate talks. An international team of scientists found that the emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels would be 1.1 percent higher in 2025 than a year ago. The overall figure is due to reach a record of 38.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, hitting a new high in history. It warns that curbing global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius would be essentially “impossible,” according to the report.   However, even though more than 80 countries had been pushing for the COP30 final agreement to include explicit reference to fossil fuels, including a roadmap to transition away from energy sources such as coal, oil, and gas, objections from some other countries won out with the final agreement avoiding mention of a shift away from fossil fuels.   Similarly, while more than 90 countries supported the inclusion of a binding roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation, the final text of the COP30 agreement included only the recognition of a need to halt and reverse forest loss, without any mandatory commitments.   The COP30’s Brazil presidency committed to create a science-based roadmap on the transition away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation over the next year, but these would be voluntary and sit outside of the UN system.   In fact, it is international scientific consensus that, in order to prevent the worst climate damages, global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero, which means emissions and removals are in balance, by 2050. A Shift away from fossil fuels is considered as one of the most important measures to significantly reduce global carbon dioxide emissions. Deforestation is hurting the planet’s ability to naturally remove carbon dioxide. The planet will keep heating for as long as global emissions remain more than zero. Climate damages, caused by global heating, will continue escalating for as long as emissions continue.   Our Pacific island community has reaffirmed for many times at the Pacific Islands Forum that the “2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent” is the region’s collective commitment to a resilient Pacific, and climate change continues to be a matter of priority. Ahead of COP30, many representatives from Pacific countries were optimistic about the progress that the conference would make since the international Court of Justice (ICJ) just issued its advisory opinion on climate obligations this July.   The advisory opinion said countries could be in violation of international law if they fail to take measures to protect the planet from climate change and nations harmed by the effects could be entitled to reparations. The case was actually initiated by a group of students from the University of South Pacific in Vanuatu and backed by more than 130 countries. After years of lobbying by island nations who fear they could disappear under rising sea waters, the UN General Assembly asked the ICJ for an advisory opinion in 2023. In July, 2025, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the historic advisory opinion and said “Young Pacific islanders initiated this call for humanity to the world. And the world must respond.”   Unfortunately, the COP30 results remind us that we can not solely rely on the ICJ document to hold certain countries to account and promote global climate action. As what is still happening in Ukraine, Russia has not stopped its aggression and invasion to Ukraine at all since February 2022, even though the Pre-Trial Chamber of the UN-backed International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in March 2023.   Mr. Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s minister for climate change, has actually described the broader context as “a period of geopolitical upheaval” where militarization is rising, aid spending is falling, and international law is often disregarded, when he talked to the media before COP30.   Since conflicts have been reported in many different parts of the world, Pope Leo XIV has warned in his first overseas trip last month that World War Three is already fought and the future of humanity is at stake. He emphasized that “ambitions and choices that trample on justice and peace” were throwing the world into chaos. He wanted to urge peace for the world and encourage people of different backgrounds to live together in harmony, So, all Pacific islanders must work together to strongly call for de-escalating all tensions emerging in any parts of the world. We have to promote dialogues to resolve problems and avoid conflicts. Any attempts trying to unilaterally change the stable and peaceful status quo around the world should not be acceptable by our Pacific island community.   The only good news from COP30 seems to be a pledge to triple finance for adaptation to climate change, increasing from around $40 billion to $120 billion per year by 2035. It’s part of a larger goal to reach $1.3 trillion in total climate finance yearly by then, alongside operationalizing the Loss & Damage Fund for those most affected and establishing a Just Transition Mechanism, which would support the protection of workers and communities as countries shift to clean energy and a climate-resilient future. Our Pacific island community certainly welcomes the global financial mechanism helping vulnerable countries’ climate mitigation and adaptation. We need to keep following up the progress of the mechanism and ensure the fund will be rapidly raised and the financial aids will be well allocated and used to strengthen climate resilience across the Pacific as soon as possible. http://www.hsvg.org/hot_527443.html * 2025 ends with uncertainty on climate action 2025-12-12 2026-12-12
Guahan Global Foundation P.O. Box 206, Hagatna, GU 96932, USA http://www.hsvg.org/hot_527443.html
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Home ﹥ News > News > * Herd Immunity May Not the Goal COVID Vaccination Should Pursue

(January 21, 2021)


Herd Immunity May Not the Goal COVID Vaccination Should Pursue



After COVID vaccines were finally available, some officials and experts started worrying about the percentage of people getting vaccinated. Their concerns are mainly related to herd immunity that most previous vaccination programs tried to achieve. However, COVID vaccination may need to pursue a different public health objective.



According to the University of Oxford Vaccine Knowledge Project, when a high percentage of the population is vaccinated, it is difficult for infectious diseases to spread, because there are not many people who can be infected. For example, if someone with measles is surrounded by people who are vaccinated against measles, the disease cannot easily be passed on to anyone, and it will quickly disappear. This is called herd immunity.



The governments that are distributing and administering COVID vaccines have to notice that herd immunity is not the only model to eradicate an pandemic. For example, the WHO (World Health Organization) was able to declare an end to the global 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic on August 10, 2010, although, according to the report released by the US CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention), the overall vaccination coverage in the US was only 27%.



The novel influenza A (H1N1) virus was identified in April 2009. On September 15 that year, four vaccine manufacturers received approval from the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) for use of the specific monovalent (H1N1) pdm09 vaccine in the prevention of influenza caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Since the pandemic was associated with a threefold higher level of hospitalizations and deaths among people aged less than 65 compared with previous influenza seasons, the vaccination program prioritized five target groups – pregnant women, people who live with or provide care for infants younger than 6 months, health–care and emergency medical services personnel, children and young adults aged 6 months to 24 years, and people aged 25 to 64 years who have medical conditions that put them at higher risk for influenza–related complications.



The US CDC’s report showed that, from October 2009 through May 2010, there were 34.2% of people in the target groups getting vaccinated. Among people of non-target groups, the vaccination coverage for people aged 25 to 64 was 16.7% and for those aged over 65, 28.8%.



In fact, in the University of Oxford’s press release regarding its COVID vaccine’s emergency use authorization, they mentioned the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will “publish its latest advice for the priority groups to receive this vaccine, with this announcement indicating that the JCVI has advised the priority should be to give as many people in at-risk groups their first dose, rather than providing the required two doses in as short a time as possible. The second dose completes the course and is important for longer term protection, and everyone will still receive their second dose within 12 weeks of their first, an approach the JCVI believes will maximise the benefits of this vaccine, ensuring at-risk people are able to get meaningful protection and ease the pressure on the UK National Health Service.” They did not address herd immunity.



Therefore, taking care of the at-risk people, once again, ought to be the main task after the COVID vaccines became available, instead of paying too much attention to the overall vaccination coverage rate and arguing with the anti-vaxxers. Once fewer at-risk people develop severe illness and hospitals are no longer overwhelmed, the whole world will see the light at the end of the tunnel.



The COVID vaccines’ effectiveness data supporting the emergency use authorization actually show that vaccines are significantly effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 disease and severe illness among the clinical trial participants. Every regulatory body also reminds that data are not available to make a determination about how long the vaccine will provide protection, nor is there evidence that the vaccine prevents transmission of the coronavirus from person to person. It implies the most relevant goal of COVID vaccination for now should be to protect at-risk groups from sickness, instead of pursuing herd immunity.



Since COVID’s highly contagious nature, it could be very difficult to achieve a containment goal and mitigation might be a better mindset to respond to the pandemic. Many countries had paid the price for inappropriate response strategies last year. Several conceptual errors are still keeping many governments trapped in this public health crisis. While COVID vaccines are finally available, governments of main countries really need to use vaccines as a powerful tool and do their best to convince and help at-risk people getting vaccination to bring the whole world to get through the pandemic as soon as possible.

(Published in the South China Morning Post on January 20, 2021)

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