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* Herd Immunity May Not the Goal COVID Vaccination Should Pursue4
http://www.hsvg.org/ Guahan Global Foundation
Guahan Global Foundation P.O. Box 206, Hagatna, GU 96932, USA
(November 15, 2024)Urge worldwide action to save the Pacific Lots of evidence recently suggested that islanders’ voices on climate action have finally been heard and brought to the global stage. We look forward to seeing leaders, experts, and activists from the Pacific community move further at the 29th United Nations Climate Conference, commonly referred to as COP29 and now happening in Azerbaijan, to facilitate more significant worldwide climate action to protect those on the frontlines.   Many people must have noticed that the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a rare appearance at the opening of 2024 Pacific Islands Forum in August. According to UN’s press release, he declared in the opening remarks that “plastic pollution is chocking sealife. Greenhouse gases are causing ocean heating, acidification and rising seas. But Pacific islanders are showing the way to protect our climate, our planet and our ocean.”   Mr. Guterres stressed that the region urgently needs more financial support, capacities and technology to speed up the transition to clean energy and so countries can invest in adaption and resilience.   He also added, while the Pacific region is doing what it can, the Group of 20 (G20) most industrialized nations – the biggest emitters of carbon – must step up and lead by phasing the production and consumption of fossil fuels and stopping their expansion immediately.   “If we save the Pacific, we save the world,” the UN chief said.   The UN also released two reports on the sidelines of the forum. A regional report compiled by the World Meteorological Organization showed sea-surface temperatures in the south-west Pacific have risen three times faster than the global average since 1980. It also found that marine heatwaves in the region had roughly doubled in frequency since 1980 and become more intense and longer-lasting.   In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2021 that the global mean sea level was rising at rates unprecedented in at least the last 3,000 years as a result of human-induced global warming. And, the new UN report titled “Surging Seas in a Warming World” indicated “emerging research on climate ‘tipping points’ and ice sheet dynamics is raising alarm among scientists that future sea-level rise could be much larger and occur sooner than previously thought.”   The Pacific Islands Forum leaders eventually issued an official communique that emphasized “climate change continues to be a matter of priority to the Pacific region” and recognized “sea level rise is a sever manifestation of climate change that threatens Pacific communities.” Accordingly, leaders agreed to elevate the issue of sea level rise “politically,” including at the UN General Assembly.   2024 UN General Assembly in September literally arranged a high level plenary meeting on sea level rise. Leaders and experts recognized in the meeting that the existential threats, for example, livelihoods are destroyed, families gradually move, community cohesion is tested, and heritage is lost, are the hard realities many people in small island states and low-lying countries experience today, not the projections of a coming future. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres therefore called for a strong financial outcome at COP29 to cope with threats caused by sea level rise.   Regarding financial outcome at COP29, it is worth noticing that this year’s conference is actually being called the “finance COP.” Following the historic agreement of creating a loss and damage fund at COP27 to compensate climate-vulnerable countries, COP28 has officially launched the fund. The finer details will be figured out at COP29 before the money actually starts flowing to nations in need next year.   Countries will also need to agree with a new global climate finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal. In addition to its total figure, COP29 will see discussion on several important terms of the NCQG, including who the donor base and recipients will be, how much will come from public and private sources, and whether it will be in the form of grants or loans.   As a member of the Pacific community, our foundation certainly looks forward to a global financial mechanism helping all Pacific islands’ climate mitigation and adaptation. However, we, together with many climate experts, also want to remind the world that the Nationally Determined Contributions, which outlines how a country will curb emissions, must be renewed every five years under Paris Agreement and the next round due is February 2025. So, COP29 is a crucial moment for countries to raise the bar and hold each other to account.   Nonprofit organization Climate Group also declared at its Climate Week NYC, taking place during the UN General Assembly in September, that the urgent and concrete action is needed to address the emission gap between what scientists say is needed to avoid disastrous climate change and what governments and business are delivered. They therefore called for governments, businesses, and the global climate community to focus on bolder annual to-do lists of climate action.   Their first Global To-Do List that governments and businesses can start taking action to drive results in the next twelve months consists of seven items including support workers to power down coal, unleash renewables, ban relining of coal-based steel furnaces, get serious on methane, stop ignoring energy efficiency, buy clean, and tax fossil fuels to fund the transition.   The UN chief Antonio Guterres actually also warned at the Pacific Islands Forum that the global 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – built around the 17 goals or SDGs – “is faltering.” Climate Group also reminded the world that we have Net Zero carbon emissions milestone to be accomplished by 2050 as well. The representatives of Pacific islands must make sure that COP29 focuses on what the whole world needs to do right now to get on track.   http://www.hsvg.org/hot_503561.html * Urge worldwide action to save the Pacific 2025-03-05 2026-03-05
Guahan Global Foundation P.O. Box 206, Hagatna, GU 96932, USA http://www.hsvg.org/hot_503561.html
Guahan Global Foundation P.O. Box 206, Hagatna, GU 96932, USA http://www.hsvg.org/hot_503561.html
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(January 21, 2021)


Herd Immunity May Not the Goal COVID Vaccination Should Pursue



After COVID vaccines were finally available, some officials and experts started worrying about the percentage of people getting vaccinated. Their concerns are mainly related to herd immunity that most previous vaccination programs tried to achieve. However, COVID vaccination may need to pursue a different public health objective.



According to the University of Oxford Vaccine Knowledge Project, when a high percentage of the population is vaccinated, it is difficult for infectious diseases to spread, because there are not many people who can be infected. For example, if someone with measles is surrounded by people who are vaccinated against measles, the disease cannot easily be passed on to anyone, and it will quickly disappear. This is called herd immunity.



The governments that are distributing and administering COVID vaccines have to notice that herd immunity is not the only model to eradicate an pandemic. For example, the WHO (World Health Organization) was able to declare an end to the global 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic on August 10, 2010, although, according to the report released by the US CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention), the overall vaccination coverage in the US was only 27%.



The novel influenza A (H1N1) virus was identified in April 2009. On September 15 that year, four vaccine manufacturers received approval from the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) for use of the specific monovalent (H1N1) pdm09 vaccine in the prevention of influenza caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Since the pandemic was associated with a threefold higher level of hospitalizations and deaths among people aged less than 65 compared with previous influenza seasons, the vaccination program prioritized five target groups – pregnant women, people who live with or provide care for infants younger than 6 months, health–care and emergency medical services personnel, children and young adults aged 6 months to 24 years, and people aged 25 to 64 years who have medical conditions that put them at higher risk for influenza–related complications.



The US CDC’s report showed that, from October 2009 through May 2010, there were 34.2% of people in the target groups getting vaccinated. Among people of non-target groups, the vaccination coverage for people aged 25 to 64 was 16.7% and for those aged over 65, 28.8%.



In fact, in the University of Oxford’s press release regarding its COVID vaccine’s emergency use authorization, they mentioned the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will “publish its latest advice for the priority groups to receive this vaccine, with this announcement indicating that the JCVI has advised the priority should be to give as many people in at-risk groups their first dose, rather than providing the required two doses in as short a time as possible. The second dose completes the course and is important for longer term protection, and everyone will still receive their second dose within 12 weeks of their first, an approach the JCVI believes will maximise the benefits of this vaccine, ensuring at-risk people are able to get meaningful protection and ease the pressure on the UK National Health Service.” They did not address herd immunity.



Therefore, taking care of the at-risk people, once again, ought to be the main task after the COVID vaccines became available, instead of paying too much attention to the overall vaccination coverage rate and arguing with the anti-vaxxers. Once fewer at-risk people develop severe illness and hospitals are no longer overwhelmed, the whole world will see the light at the end of the tunnel.



The COVID vaccines’ effectiveness data supporting the emergency use authorization actually show that vaccines are significantly effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 disease and severe illness among the clinical trial participants. Every regulatory body also reminds that data are not available to make a determination about how long the vaccine will provide protection, nor is there evidence that the vaccine prevents transmission of the coronavirus from person to person. It implies the most relevant goal of COVID vaccination for now should be to protect at-risk groups from sickness, instead of pursuing herd immunity.



Since COVID’s highly contagious nature, it could be very difficult to achieve a containment goal and mitigation might be a better mindset to respond to the pandemic. Many countries had paid the price for inappropriate response strategies last year. Several conceptual errors are still keeping many governments trapped in this public health crisis. While COVID vaccines are finally available, governments of main countries really need to use vaccines as a powerful tool and do their best to convince and help at-risk people getting vaccination to bring the whole world to get through the pandemic as soon as possible.

(Published in the South China Morning Post on January 20, 2021)

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